Linux runs the entire internet, a good part of corporate-level servers and it dominates the supercomputing space, you can’t get more mainstream than that.
As for desktop use, most people around the world don’t know what an operating system is, some even believe the browser IS the internet.
With such tech-illiteracy there’s no way Linux can be widely adopted, because no opensource project can beat Microsoft commercial power in “convincing” PC vendors to offer it preinstalled, yes a few do, but they’re very scarce compared to those offering Windows, some even claim you will break the warranty if you install something different than what comes preinstalled (Windows), such a claim is illegal in many countries but some people don’t know any better.
If you don’t know what an OS is, you have no reason to change, unless you’re lucky and have a friend or family member doing the work for you, but you can’t rely on that for the entire world.
Unfortunately, I don’t see Linux ever gaining widespread adoption. Not for general desktop use.
In order for that to happen, Linux would have to gain enough market share to actually be a threat to Microsoft’s business, and when that happens, Microsoft is going to respond one of two ways: actually making their products more appealing, and regain their lost share, or (far more likely) REALLY ramp up their efforts to suppress Linux’s growth. And I don’t think Linux has the strength to withstand the full weight of Microsoft’s legal and financial power.
With Windows 10 EOL we already saw a surge of new users me included and with the decline of Agentic OS 11 I can see Linux hitting 10% in 2029 maybe even 2028.
Asshole authoritarians spread their disease throughout the world. First they pass laws requiring age verification options and successfully pull off the non-optional bait and switch. Then they require more and more mandatory shit until open source becomes impossible. Only paid distros like Red Hat survive and we’ve all got cameras in bedrooms and slave gays, lesbians, blacks, and non Christian people in concentration camps that operate on the latest Microslop Winblows data-miner OS.
So a couple of weeks ago I finally had enough of windows and put linux mint on my laptop instead. I haven’t used linux since the early 90s and couldn’t remember much at all, was concerned I’d have trouble with drivers etc.
In fact the whole experience was a piece of piss. So easy. There were no urgent-seeming pop ups with arcane terms, no crashes or problems, I didn’t need to use the command prompt.
Then I was able to find and install the programmes I use easily too. Slack, steam, etc. Within maybe an hour I was able to do my work on the computer again. I kinda feel like I got my laptop back - windows was getting so buggy and aggravating that I had been avoiding using the machine.
If Linux wants a future in which it continues to grow, it needs to do more of this, appealing to the casual, non-technical user. Because we probably represent most of the market.
windows was getting so buggy and aggravating
Also Microsoft convinced the people that system updates are a bad thing.
Mint, Manjaro, Fedora, Bazzite… there are plenty of beginner friendly distros these days!
That’s easy, I just take a gander into my Linux Orb, and it reveals itself to me
Brighter than ever, thanks to Steam Deck and Microsoft’s general idiocy.
Linux would look great even if Microsoft didn’t help, but oh my god, does Microsoft help.
Just `man future` .
Seriously, RTFM.
/s jk, this comment brought to you by parody.
I see Linux being more and more widely adopted in Europe, for one. I imagine there will be an ‘EU standardized’ distro forked to prevent any issues of interoperability between government systems. Hopefully, such a widespread adoption for PCs encourages more development for Linux from software devs.
Bright. As it continues to grow, and MS gets more terrible I think desktop share will always increase.
I seriously worry about what happens when Linus decides to end his involvement though. I don’t keep up with the happens of the kernel devs but the thought of a split, takeover or power vacuum is a concern for me. Hopefully someone can assure me.
My exact concern too. Don’t see it as an imminent problem, but would like some sort of succession plan or even to develop some sort of framework to ensure the kernel endures after Linus stops being involved.
There is a continuity process at least https://github.com/torvalds/linux/commit/102606402f4f5943266160e263c450fdfe4dd981 Although it is mainly, here is the process to figure out the plan.
What amazes me is, that a formal official plan (this) is just done recently a few months ago. How was there no official plan before? I don’t understand…
Have you got a will?
Estimated 50% of adults don’t. There’s always a more pleasant task on the to-do list to be getting on with.WTF we are talking about Linux, the biggest and most important piece of software. What are you even talking about will and adults? Sorry if this was meant to be a joke. But having a plan like this is crucial important.
The point, is that people don’t like thinking about this subject, as evidenced by the fact that half of people don’t put plans in place even when it’s something as comparatively simple as a will unless they get more imminent prior warning. This is not a Linux kernel specific issue, Bram and vim being an obvious example. Something as potentially complicated as the Linux kernel succession? I can see why it wouldn’t be a subject the community was keen to tackle.
Through a monitor… probably customizable Vr based DE’s or something if I’m being real
Like today, just better? It’s likely still going to power most of the servers, 70% of smartphones, a lot of the embedded devices… And maybe desktop marketshare is going to rise a bit above the current 4%.
I think it’s going to start skyrocketing in global desktop use. Maybe not in the US, but globally lots of other countries have good reason to migrate away from US based software companies
My money is on 2027 as The Year Of The Linux Desktop.
My money is on 1999 as the year of the Linux desktop. I mean, that’s when I switched to Linux full time 🤷
Similarly, 2025 wasn’t the year of Linux desktop… but it was the year of Linux on my desktop.
Same here. Debian since Slink.
THE FUTURE IS NOW!
, old man.
10% desktop usage by 2040, possibly 2035 if Microslop keeps being Linux’s #1 marketer.
I think it’s going to be higher than that. I think a lot of counties will start rapidly migrating away from American software companies, and the only alternative is Linux. China will soon really start pushing out their own fully home-grown cheap PCs to the world with some flavor of Linux as the OS. American software companies won’t be able to compete.
Globally, I bet the desktop marketshare for various flavors of Linux is pushing 90% by 2040.
Yeah, this is a lower bound estimate. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 20-30% by 2040.
