It goes without saying, DVDs/BlueRays.
Bike locks. Surveillance will be expanded to the point that petty crimes will become impossible.
Why the downvotes? Do you disagree with the expectation or do you dislike the development? The question is about what will happen, not what we want to happen. I don’t like it but I expect full surveillance in 10 years.
Ha! The police don’t pursue crimes against cyclists.
What technology will disappear in the next 10 years?
It will be fully automated. You mark the position and time, an AI checks the record and the thief will be punished. No police nor judge needed.
Doesn’t really keep my bike where I expect it to be, though, does it? So what does all that violation of human rights actually buy us?
Once all thieves are ‘treated’, who should move a bike?
So what does all that violation of human rights actually buy us?
Violated humans. Political stability by removing all dissidents.
I am not arguing for surveillance, I just assume that it will come.
I am not arguing for surveillance
just parroting the talking point of those who are?
Why should it not happen? If they track everybody crime becomes impossible, as does dissent. The latter is the motivation, the former, as you say, the talking point. Not looking forward to it, but political development suggests that it will happen.
The way shit is headed, probably vaccines.
*in the US
I believe it’s propagating outside of the US
No, we have a vaccine for that.
Not disappear entirely, but most households won’t own desktop computers or HDDs.
Most people connected to the Internet today have never owned a desktop computer nor an HDD. A crazy amount of people have been introduced to computing with smartphones.
As a homelabber, this makes me sad. Perhaps enshittification will push people back into home/local computing.
homelabbing isnt even my gripe with it. its not ever interacting with computers on your own terms, only on theirs. smartphones are a black box.
i see ads, artificial annoyances, and human right violations by technology increasing in lockstep with the reduction of our collective control over computing.
I agree. I’m also very sad when I see small kids watching YouTube videos on tablets; that’s pretty much all they do.
Where’s the fun of tinkering? Trying to build things? Trying fixing problems, such as formatting?
Kids don’t even have the concept of files and folders. We’re raising a generation of digital slaves.
Honestly I don’t think that’s tru. There were very few kids who truly tinkered with their computers in the old days too - first because not many kids had computers in the first place, and then because computers started being useful without any tinkering. There are still a lot of youths (12-16) today who are flashing LineageOS on their phone or installing Linux on their Chromebook, or whatever. I know because they keep flooding the NixOS Telegram chat that I’m managing - and I try to welcome them with open arms!
smartphones are a black box.
Many Android phones still have a bit of that tinkering ability to them (you kinda have access to the file system, and you can root them/flash custom android distros), but it’s quickly diminishing because (1) OEMs are locking the bootloaders, (2) it’s getting harder and harder to get hardware working without proprietary OEM hacks, (3) bank apps and other proprietary garbage that’s becoming a necessity in modern times refuses to run on an unlocked phone.
I would hope, but on the whole you’d almost think they deliberately purged home computing from the mainstream consciousness, with how tragically ignorant the average person is about anything that isn’t a little poke-driven rectangle that screams at you all day.
M.2 > HDD
Clearly not IPV4.
Shit. I’ve been waiting for IPv6 for 20 years.
Maybe eventually my kids will have IPv6 as the common sense default and will marvel at the ingenuity of their ancestors to keep using way too few addresses for way too many devices
Funnily enough I recently had to disable ipv4 in a game because of connection issues.
My ISp shares a single IPv4 between multiple customers, NAT 444.
So my PC is on 192.168.1.4 on the LAN, my router is on 10.183.13.62 on my ISPs network and some number of customers are sharing 84.146.73.54
They don’t give out IPv6 addresses though.
I’m going to be bold. The internal combustion engine car.
There will be a tipping point where nobody wants to maintain the highly intricate manufacturing for them, and they will stop very quickly. Electric motors are the future and the transition is accelerating. We’re currently around 20% of new sales and I expect after 60-70% ICEs will just disappear from sale.
I don’t think that’s bold.
It’s already at 25% last month and 50+% in China.A majority of Chinas EVs outside of Shenzhen are hybrids. Unless youre counting vespas, there’s way more electrics.
It’s only the timescale I’m unsure about.
we still see a lot of 20-40yr old cars around, many daily driven. if we suddenly stop making ice cars today, its still taking a while for them to truly go away in practical terms.
Most countries will be raising taxes on fuel even more and in general it will become less available fast: gas stations, mechanics who know how to fix the ICE old timers etc. it will become a hobby thing (like old timers today already). Certain niches will keep ICE way longer (heavy construction vehicles etc) but it will suddenly become quite rare in 20 or 30 years to see a regular old ICE driven by a regular person doing regular things like commuting or so.
carburators arent a thing in my country for at least 30 years now but plenty of people around who still know how to work on them.
become quite rare in 20 or 30 years
yea thats what i meant. ICE won’t be going anywhere at all in 10 years, but about 30 yes
For heavy construction vehicles only three main factors need to align: normal replacement schedule, enough capacity for the heaviest day (which is quite predictable in many industries,) and the charging infrastructure.
The last one is a major hurdle and is holding back EVs on all levels already. In the US it is also the least likely to see improvement anytime soon
I think the EU has plans to stop the sale of ICEs in 10 years, so… that could start a snowball effect.
I believe this… But the USA being an exception
Social security and pensions I think.
I don’t know of any millennial or younger who assumes there will be a safety net for them at the end of the road. We just don’t trust those in charge to keep it. I’ll fight for it, I paid into it and I want others to have it, but I can’t bank on it either
There’s simply no way to keep pensions. It’s like a big pyramid scheme where new people are putting the money and old people are enjoying them; the problem is that old people are growing and they’ve been living longer, and young people are less and less.
The problem is the owners don’t pay their fair share, nothing else.
Productivity has risen to cover everything.
Fuck that, we’ll burn it all down if they take social security from us. It’s largely paid from existing taxes as it is. We just need to get through this shit show of an administration first. That or pray Mario shows up
I’d say consumer printers
We’re running towards all digital, only a few edge cases will still require them
self-inflicted, if they played nice we would all be printing from home.
upside is lesa paper waste
I’ve found myself needing to print something only 1-2 times per year, so I just go to the library to do it. E-waste-wise, this change is for the better
Luckily we’ve invited 10 new gadgets for you to make sure we meet our E-waste goals
Most of my print jobs… maybe one a month, are for either artistic reasons or for making labels to stick on things.
I do still print tickets out of habit though, just in case I lose/forget my phone or drain the battery that day, though this has literally never happened.
3G networks
I feel like DVDs/Blurays already disappeared 10 years ago and are now making a comeback. Same for CDs. Streaming services don’t let you own anything, and if they pull something down, you’re SOL. Self hosting Plex and ripping my own disks has given me a level of freedom not possible with netflix et. al. Especially since DVDs are considered garbage to most people now, you can set up your own streaming service for you and your friends and family for cheap. No piracy necessary.
Please be “ai”… Please be “ai”…
Nope. The next super mario will have goombas again, and they will have AI again
Hopefully fax machines, but these things seem incapable of dying.
Unless you’re trying to use one. Then they’re always broken.
i havent seen one in years
Well obvious umbrella. It’s bad luck to open you in the house, and we don’t keep the fax machines outside.
German government has entered the
chatlandline
I don’t think we will be losing optical disks ever.
If burned properly they hold storage for a very long time without data loss. IIRC Facebook burns optical disks for old photographs and instead of having a hard drive array or tape library they had a RAID based optical disk system.
Optical disks are great, but not for the daily user since most media content is online and most storage is judged on being rewritable.
i completely agree, though i hope that eventually we can settle on something like Cerabyte for long term archival storage.
If burned properly they hold storage for a very long time without data loss
They also need very particular storage conditions (temperature and humidity in particular), otherwise they will discrot. But yeah they are likely to store data for longer than solid-state media at least.
hopefully ai
We call it AI now but machine learning algorithms have been around for 70 years now and basically run the world
AI technologie could be nice. LLM and Diffusion models ruining the Internet with fake information and Fake art, being over hyped as AI that will change the world, all while burning up unimaginable amounts of energy? Yeah, I also hope it goes away.
No way. We will build grids and power for eventual AI takeover of common employees like fast food. It’s a sad future.
Thus converting a workforce of poorly paid fast food employees into one of highly paid utility workers.
Tablets.
The market for them is very thin. With phones getting bigger and convertible laptops being more lightweight I don’t see much market for tablets.
Which is a shame because it’s s good format for comic reading and more durable than a convertible laptop (they always break by the hinges) but I think in ten years it will be quite hard to find a tablet for sale.
Honestly I would say it might go the other way with laptops disappearing and being replaced with tablets.
The operating systems and software on tablets is getting ever more capable even for productivity stuff. Add to that newer generations growing up while using mostly smartphones and maybe sometimes a computer and I believe if having to decide they would choose a tablet over a laptop. In general the line between laptops and tablets is getting a bit blurry with windows based tablet PC’s and tablets that come with a keyboard cover.
RIP PDAs with keyboard. Another form factor I miss
Unless digital artists are replaced with AI entirely, I don’t see that happening. iPads (unfortunately) are kind of the golden standard there. If anything I expect drawing tablets without screens to disappear.
If anything I think DVDs and Blu-rays are going to rise. All across the media landscape people seem to be getting annoyed with the “own nothing” society we’re in. The thrift stores are full of thousands of DVDs for barely any cost. Last week I bought the Matrix 2 and 3 and Der Untergang in DVD for like 3 bucks. Way easier than figuring out in which streaming service to watch them and what OS and browser will let it play at HD resolution. Once “the youth” picks up on this like they did with CDs and digicams the DVD will be back.
Recently In bought a Blu-ray of Star Wars Andor because I love the series and want to support it, but Disney+ wouldn’t play beyond 480p on my setup. My trusty old PS3 plays it like a dream and the resulting image is ridiculously sharp compared to streaming.
CDs, cassettes, and vinyl are already booming or in the rise again. And the streaming audio landscape is arguably way nicer than the streaming video lanschape. In photography there’s also a wave of film and early digital camera hype.
I hope that the next 10 years brings the resurgence of the physical medium and ownership. And if not that, the resurgence of the high seas.
I mean flash drives, SD card and others are just as good as DVDs these days and are getting cheaper and cheaper by the day so I cannot really see why people would want DVDs and Blue Rays these days
You’re right - they’re massively better than spinny bits of plastic in every way. Speed, capacity (1tb tfcard the size of your pinky nail), cost (probably) and longevity. DVD/CD’s don’t last very well in storage.
If it were up to me that’d be fine indeed. But they probably want to retain compatibility with existing setups and unfortunately they will also want some DRM, which Blu-ray provides. A new flash storage (or even just download/file-based) standard should totally be possible, but that’d first require some investment.
Also, there’s some joy in having the plastic spinny thing and putting it into a machine to watch the content. Not having all the content ready at your fingertips and instead putting some throught and effort into getting to the content is what makes stuff like vinyl popular again.
They’ll never come back because studios will never release new movies on them.
Piracy is coming back strong, but I don’t personally see myself going back to burning DVDs instead of buying HDD/SSDs.
I mean, you’re still able to buy the Star Wars shows on Blu-ray, so physical disks for video content might remain just like people but vinyls as a collectors item. DVDs will be for old content only, but there are still so many that they may nevertheless become popular again.
Apparently theres a rise in demand for “dumb TVs”, to the point people are paying a premium…no sources, I read it on Lemmy.
No surprise to me. Everything I’ve heard from smart TVs has made me decide that I don’t want one. Expensive telemetry machines. My current TV is basically just a dumb screen and I wouldn’t want it any other way.
Well with your DVDs the “HD resolution” question is easily answered: you don’t get HD resolution. Weird comparison there. Especially since you complain about Disney+ not going beyond 480p in your specific case - so why buy DVDs with the same shitty resolution?
I’m all for media ownership, but I don’t see the point in buying optical discs (with rather limited lifetime) at 720x480px resolution. Blu rays at least offer HD / UHD, but the plastic / coating will still degrade with time.
I think the way to go is a Homeserver (could even be a raspberry pi) where you can somewhat secure your storage with appropriate redundancy.
Well with your DVDs the “HD resolution” question is easily answered: you don’t get HD resolution. Weird comparison there. Especially since you complain about Disney+ not going beyond 480p in your specific case - so why buy DVDs with the same shitty resolution?
While I generally agree here, resolution isn’t everything, bitrate also plays a role, and some content in streaming services has been compressed rather badly so that you get artifacts that you don’t have on DVDs. A DVD will certainly look better than 480p streaming content despite a much older codec which light only exists as a reason for an upsell.
I think the way to go is a Homeserver (could even be a raspberry pi) where you can somewhat secure your storage with appropriate redundancy.
And how would you get stuff onto your homeserver legally?
I was with you until:
“And how would you get stuff onto your homeserver legally?”🙊🙉🙈
I mean if you’re going for the piracy route, you never used streaming services or bought physical media anyways and the whole discussion is moot.
Oh no… And don’t presume. Just ask.
Because I DID buy them and used the services.
I just, now, think disney, Spotify…whatever…none of them, deserve a penny more.
So i do my part against these corporations, by not giving them anything.
You do you. Buy the things.
Buy.
Buy.
Buy.
Buy…I think this situation is not so black and white. Before we had the current gazillion streaming services and Netflix had almost all content, most would-be pirates weren’t even thinking about piracy since the service was good enough. In the current situation with atrocious monthly fees and content being split across 10+ streaming services, there probably are quite a few who legally stream what they can get with their subscriptions and pirate the rest.
True, it’s always a combination of resolution and bitrate, though I personally haven’t had the kind of artifacting you are describing. However I also never stream movies etc below 1080p, so I can’t judge how bad the encoding at 480p is on Disney+. In any case, provided the bitrate / encoding is sufficient, you can never reach the level of visual fidelity of higher resolutions with DVDs.
And how would you get stuff onto your homeserver legally?
Buy and rip Blu-rays, in some rare cases you can actually download DRM-free content, depending on your jurisdiction you may also be able to remove DRM protection legally.
Because unlike with Disney+ I’d pay like one euro and I’m able to watch the content forever. But you’re right, it isn’t HD. Blu-ray is tho, with the same benefits
